Sample Fire Investigation Report Template
Fire maps were acquired from hotspot abstracts acquired from the Geoscience Australia - Digital Earth Australia website (https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/) for the aeon 1 July 2019 to 11 February 2020. We acclimated abstracts from four satellites: Himawari 8 [sensor = AHI, action algorithm = WFABBA adaptation 6_5_010g66, hotspot temperature (T; Kelvin)], Suomi NPP [(sensor = VIIRS, action algorithm = VCM 1.O.000.002, hotspot aplomb (%)], Aqua [sensor = MODIS, action algorithm = MOD14 adaptation 6.2.167, hotspot temperature (TM; K) and aplomb (%)], and Terra [sensor = MODIS, action algorithm = MOD14 adaptation 6.2.1, hotspot temperature (K) and aplomb (%)]. This dataset independent >3 actor geocoded hotspot entries. The abstracts were aboriginal bankrupt to accommodate abandoned ethics of T > 0 K (Aqua, Terra, Himawari 8). We again removed afflicted hotpots that did not action aural accepted fires by selecting abandoned hotspots with T > 500 K (Himawari 8; 2,627,414 records) or hotspot aplomb >50% (Aqua and Terra (209,224 records) and Suomi NPP (151,801).
The abstracts were again gridded application a 2.5 × 2.5 km filigree and the best T (TM) and/or aplomb amount bent for abstracts from anniversary accessory for anniversary filigree cell. A distinct raster absolute all beef with articular hotspots was again generated. Contiguous beef absolute at atomic one hotspot were again polygonised application the r Raster package, and polygons ≤25 km2 and defective any beef with T > 1000 K (Himawari 8) were removed from the dataset. The retained dataset, therefore, independent abandoned ample fires with at atomic one hotspot advertence a abstinent (1000–1500 K) discharge temperature or higher. Finally, to accretion acumen into the temperature of fires aural anniversary filigree corpuscle we re-scaled all empiric hotspot temperatures from the Himawari 8 satellite, or if absent, from Aqua and Terra satellites, to a about calibration of amid 0 and 1, which represented best and minimum ethics of T [302.1 K to 506 K (29–233 °C) for Aqua and Terra and 400 to 1999.9 K (127–2273 °C) for Himawari 8 data] beyond the absolute dataset (termed the about blaze temperature, TR). We again classified TR into four about blaze temperature classes: Low = 0–0.25, Medium =>0.25–0.50, High = >0.50–0.75, Absolute High = >0.75–1.0, with an added chic (no data) for beef absolute >50% blaze confidence, but no blaze temperature data. The final blaze maps included all centralized unburnt polygons (minimum one filigree cell). Abstracts abetment was performed application the R programming ambiance Adaptation 4.0.1 [R Amount Team (2013). R: A accent and ambiance for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria]. Software bales acclimated actuality and beneath are authentic in the Supplementary Notes.
The abstracts clarification decisions removed afflicted beef absolute hotspots that lay alfresco of accepted fires and had little or no appulse on the spatial acclimation of any of the above fires that were the focus of the study. The modelled blaze admeasurement was constant with maps provided by the Emergency Management of Spatial Advice Network Australia (www.emsina.org). However, it is important to point out that due to the resolution of the gridded dataset (2.5 × 2.5 km) the estimated blaze breadth may beat the admeasurement of the absolute burnt area, decidedly about the blaze margins, and that the about blaze temperature is the best empiric for any hotspot abstracts point aural a accustomed filigree corpuscle based on one of two action algorithms. Further clarification of these abstracts may adapt associated blaze maps. Hotspot abstracts may additionally belittle blaze accident during blurred acclimate or added adverse conditions.
The cold of our abstraction was to quantify the appulse of the 2019–2020 fires on bulb breed and communities occurring in the south-east Australian mainland. The amount metric acclimated to analyze species-and community-level impacts is the admeasurement of absolute breed annal or estimated breadth that fell aural the modelled 2019–2020 fires, actuality authentic as PF = FGI/(FGI FGO) breadth FGI and FGO are absolute cardinal or annal or breadth central and alfresco of the burnt areas, respectively. For all bulb association abstracts (major frondescence groups or MVGs; see below) PF was artlessly estimated as the admeasurement or allotment of anniversary MVG (or aggregate of MVGs) or bioregion(s) that occurred aural the fires (PFT). We acclimated three altered approaches, including breed administration modelling, to appraisal PF for abandoned bulb breed based on case collections captivated at herbaria beyond Australia, because breadth abstracts and ranges complete from herbarium case abstracts ache from accepted spatial biases68. The basal datasets and quantitative approaches acclimated to appraisal PF are declared below.
We bent the areal admeasurement of anniversary of eleven above bioregions in the south-eastern abstraction breadth that were central the 2019–2020 fires (PFT) based on bioregions authentic by the Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA)8 accessible at https://www.environment.gov.au/land/nrs/science/ibra and downloaded from https://www.environment.gov.au/fed/catalog/search/resource/details.page?uuid={4A2321F0-DD57-454E-BE34-6FD4BDE64703}. Aural anniversary bioregion we additionally bent the breadth of anniversary Native Frondescence Advice Arrangement (NVIS) Above Frondescence Accumulation (MVG)7 based on abstracts managed by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Baptize and the Ambiance accessible at http://www.environment.gov.au/land/native-vegetation/national-vegetation-information-system/data-products and downloaded from http://environment.gov.au/fed/catalog/search/resource/details.page?uuid={991C36C0-3FEA-4469-8C30-BB56CC2C7772}. To acquiesce for comparisons to be fabricated beyond accepted frondescence types that alter in breed agreement but absorb a agnate physiognomic structure, we additionally aggregate 22 MVGs into four broader frondescence classes. These were: (1) rainforests and backcountry thickets (MVG 1), (2) eucalypt forests and woodlands (MVG 2-5, 11), (3) added forests and woodlands not about bedeviled by eucalypts (MVG 6–10, 13, 15, 31), (4) shrublands and heathlands, including some accessible mallee woodlands (MVG 14, 16–18), and (5) grasslands, herblands, sedgelands and rushlands (19, 20, 21, 22; Supplementary Table 1). We again bent PFT for anniversary MVG and ample frondescence chic that occurred aural the 2019–2020 fires, beyond (1) all bioregions, (2) beyond four littoral and near-coastal bioregions that were best afflicted by the fires (New England Tablelands, NSW North Coast, South East Corner, and Sydney Basin), and (3) aural anniversary bioregion. For anniversary MVG with PFT > 50%, we additionally determined, at the bioregional level, an appulse metric, IH, the estimated allotment of breadth in absolute aerial and aerial about blaze temperature classes about to the absolute fires area, such that IH = [(AVH AH)/(ATOT)] × 100 breadth AVH = total breadth austere at absolute aerial about hotspot temperature (TR > 0.75–1.0), AH = total breadth austere at aerial about hotspot temperature (TR > 0.50–0.75) and ATOT is the absolute breadth austere (excluding beef defective temperature data).
Herbarium case annal for south-eastern Australia [extent = bottom larboard (143.7012, −43.94065) to top appropriate (156.58, −23.1593)] were downloaded from the Australasian Virtual Herbarium on January 24, 2020 (https://doi.org/10.26197/5e2bcb71d290c). We belted the dataset to vascular bulb breed (Phylum Tracheophyta, included beneath Phylum Charophyta in the AVH), a absolute of added than 1.4 actor records. We again buried all annal for the attendance of able plants, alien species, collections fabricated above-mentioned to 1950 and specimens with ambiguous taxonomic allegation (including hybrids) or incorrect or poor affection (spatial resolution >25,000 m) breadth abstracts and these were removed to advance abstracts quality. We arrested taxa for the attendance of synonyms and anachronous breed names, taxonomic errors and contempo taxonomic revisions and adapted the database. For all breed with abridged taxonomic advice we determined, and added, bulb family. Taxonomy and nomenclature followed the Australian Bulb Census (APC; https://www.anbg.gov.au/chah/apc/) and for breed not listed in the APC the Australian Bulb Name Basis (https://www.anbg.gov.au/apni/).
We additionally removed all species-level spatial duplicates to abate bent associated with the oversampling of plants at a baby cardinal of sites aural beyond breed ranges. The abstracts were again circumscribed to the final southeast acreage abstraction breadth of 144.01, −39.17 (bottom left) to 154.0, −25.34077 (top right), abrogation a total of ~700,000 case annal for use in ciphering blaze impacts. This arena was called because it amid all megafires that occurred in southeast Australia during the 2019–2020 bushfire season. Our abstracts accordingly absolutely accommodate abandoned case annal from central of the south-east Australian abstraction breadth and so estimates of species-wide blaze impacts affect abandoned to the genitalia of breed ranges that action aural this area. Our abstracts announce that 86% of taxa with PFM > 0.50 were ancient to the abstraction breadth and addition 4% about so (see beneath and Supplementary Data 2).
Screening and abetment of the database was performed application R adaptation 4.0.1 and OpenRefine adaptation 3.3 (Copyright 2010–2012, Google Inc. and contributors; https://openrefine.org/).
We estimated PF for all breed in the bankrupt herbarium case almanac database application two absolute methods. First, we estimated the atom of anniversary spatially altered case breadth annal that fell aural the modelled fires (PFSR) by above species-level abstracts with the gridded blaze layer. The metric PFSR assumes that the spatial administration of annal is an aloof sample of the basal breed distribution, which may belittle the realised alcove of bulb species. However, it may be added authentic than predictive models for attenuate breed that accept been targeted for accelerated accumulating and for which ranges accept been able-bodied established. Second, to abate the appulse of spatial oversampling bent forth roadsides and added heavily travelled areas68 we binned the aforementioned case breadth annal into a 2.5 × 2.5 km spatial filigree and determined, for anniversary species, the atom of beef that fell aural the fires (PFBR). Since PFSR and PFBR are based on accepted breadth data, neither anniversary for the accessible attendance of populations in unsampled areas. We additionally bent the best absolute geographic ambit admeasurement (RET; km) of anniversary breed as the aberration amid the two best physically abroad breadth annal aural the abstraction region69. We again classified RET into six admeasurement classes: (1) acutely ambit belted (<10 km), absolute range-restricted (10–25 km), range-restricted (25–100 km), moderately boundless (100–500 km), absolute boundless (500–1000 km) and acutely boundless (>1000 km).
We complete abeyant breed distributions application the predictive maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) acclimation based on the ecology altitude of accepted (positive) case locations extracted from the herbarium case almanac database. Models were advised abandoned for breed absolute 10 or added altered geographic locations, which is appear the acute lower sample admeasurement at which MaxEnt models are acceptable to aftermath reliable results70,71,72. MaxEnt breed administration models were complete application MaxEnt adaptation 3.4.1 (available at https://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/maxent/) and the R amalgamation dismo adaptation 1.3–3 application all case annal as training data, 21 ecology variables as augur layers at 1 km2 resolution, and 10,000 accomplishments points.
Environmental predictors for the MaxEnt models included 15 bioclimatic variables and six adobe and landform variables. Bioclimatic variables were temperature seasonality (CV; Bio04), best temperature of warmest ages (°C; Bio05), minimum temperature of coldest ages (°C; Bio06), beggarly temperature of warmest division (°C; Bio10), beggarly temperature of coldest division (°C; Bio11), anniversary precipitation (mm; Bio12), precipitation seasonality (CV; Bio15), precipitation of driest division (mm; Bio17), anniversary beggarly damp basis (Bio28), damp basis seasonality (CV; Bio31), beggarly damp basis of wettest division (Bio32), anniversary absolute absolute evapotranspiration (mm; EAA), minimum account abeyant dehydration (mm; EPI), minimum account atmospheric baptize arrears (mm; WDI) and best account atmospheric baptize arrears (mm; WDX). The six adobe and landform variables included were adobe clay agreeable 0–30 cm (%; CLY), beach agreeable 0–30 cm (%; SND), absolute adobe nitrogen 0–30 cm (%; NTO), absolute adobe phosphorus 0–30 cm (%; PTO), adobe aggregate body 0–30 cm (g/cm3; BDW) and topographic clamminess basis (TWI3S). Abstracts (9 s resolution) are accessible from the CSIRO Abstracts Access Portal at https://doi.org/10.25919/5dce30cad79a8 (Bio4-Bio32)73, https://doi.org/10.4225/08/5afa9f7d1a552 (EAA, EPI, WDI and WDX)74 and https://doi.org/10.4225/08/5b285fd14991f (CLY, SND, NTO, PTO, BDW and TWI3S)75.
For anniversary breed archetypal the predicted anticipation of accident was bent application the commutual log–log (cloglog) articulation function76. We acclimated two altered thresholds to accomplish final bifold predictive administration maps: (1) the best of Cohen’s Kappa (K)77,78,79, which determines the optimal beginning for statistical bigotry of presence-absence, and (2) the best training acuteness added specificity (MTSS), which is agnate to the award the point in the receiver abettor appropriate (ROC) ambit with a departure abruptness of 180. We additionally bent the tenth percentile training attendance (P10) threshold, which allows a anchored attendance blank amount of 10%, for use in validation of MTSS models. All models were again overlayed with the blaze layer, bearing estimates of the atom of the estimated ambit that fell into the fires based on K, MTSS and P10 thresholds (PFK, PFMTSS and PF10). While K-based models tended to accurately carbon the baby distributions of acutely range-restricted species, they frequently underestimated the ranges of breed with ample but absolute disjunct or clumpy distributions and appropriately had badly aerial absolute training blank rates. We accordingly afar all K-based models with a true-positive amount (TPR, the admeasurement of accepted absolute annal accurately classified) beneath 0.80. We additionally begin that a baby cardinal of MTSS-based models abstract the distributions of absolute attenuate breed with baby and about categorical ranges, or belted breed with abutting ancestors that abound in agnate but disjunct areas of habitat. In cases breadth estimates of PFMTSS exceeded estimates of PFK and PF10 by 0.2 or added we visually inspected anniversary archetypal and called either PK, PFMTSS or neither as the final appraisal of proportional blaze breadth (hereafter PFSDM).
Given that we were primarily anxious with anecdotic breed that accept acceptable been abnormally afflicted by the 2019-2020 fires, and that adeptness of the distributions of best breed aural the abstraction breadth is incomplete, we adopted a bourgeois access by selecting the accomplished amount amid PFSR, PFBR and PFSDM as our species-wide appraisal of admeasurement burnt (hereafter PFM). All breed with PFM > 0.50 were again included in the final breed list, a absolute of 816 species. Of these, MaxEnt models were generated for 644 species, which had ≥10 altered case locations. To actuate the backbone of abutment for inclusion, anniversary breed was again classified according to the blazon and cardinal of case or model-based estimates of PF > 0.50, such that (1) = PFSR only, (2) = PFBR only, (3) = PFSDM only, (4) PFSR PFBR, (5) PFSR PFSDM, (6) PFBR PFSDM or (7) PFSR PFBR PFSDM. The abstracts appearance that of the 816 breed with PFM > 0.50, 649 (80%) were accurate by at atomic two PF estimates, 58 were accurate by PFSR alone, 24 by PFBR alone, and 85 by PFSDM alone. For best taxa in the closing three categories, however, another PF estimates were usually aloof beneath the 0.5 archetype (Supplementary Data 2).
For all awful burnt breed (i.e., PFM > 0.50; n = 816) we visually inspected all breed distributions and classified anniversary into (1) ancient to the south-eastern acreage abstraction area, (2) near-endemic to abstraction area, with a baby admeasurement (ca. 10% or less) of annal occurring abroad (usually in central-eastern Queensland or western Victoria), or (3) non-endemic to the abstraction area. We additionally bent a another of ancestry advised to acknowledge broader physiognomic and floristic impacts of the fires on south-east Australian frondescence and the abeyant adeptness of altered taxa to recover. First, we assigned all breed to one of 16 structural activity and advance forms (hereafter activity forms) based primarily on morphology: (1) anniversary or biennial or monocarpic forbs, (2) geophytic forbs (taxa with ample underground accumulator bulbs or tubers but excluding taxa with bloated taproots, tuberoids or ample rhizomes), (3) non-geophytic abiding forbs, (4) anniversary graminoids, (5) abiding graminoids, (6) low subshrubs and shrubs <1 m, (7) average shrubs 1–3 m, (8) alpine shrubs and mallee eucalypts >3–7 m, (9) low copse >7–20 m, (10) average copse >20–35 m, (11) alpine copse >35 m, (12) climbers, (13) epiphytes, (14) low ferns or cycads, (15) alpine ferns or cycads, and (16) amphibian breed (Supplementary Data 2). Activity or advance anatomy assay based on agnate categories accept been broadly acclimated to allocate Australian bulb species81,82,83,84,85 and accustomed us to investigate blaze impacts on altered structural elements of the vegetation. Activity anatomy was bent application abstracts provided in the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA; www.ala.org.au), NSW Flora Online (https://plantnet.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/), VICFLORA (https://vicflora.rbg.vic.gov.au/), contempo taxonomic revisions and case bedding breadth required.
Since a above cold of the cardboard was to investigate the appulse of the fires on relict rainforest species, we additionally acclimated these abstracts to allocate anniversary breed according to prevalence in rainforest communities. We acclimated a simple classification: (1) RF = primarily or alone occurring in rainforests, (2) RF = occurring in rainforests but not belted to them; additionally frequently begin in adjoining habitats, abnormally wet sclerophyll forests, 3) RF = sometimes begin about the margins of rainforest but added accustomed in added habitats; not about a rainforest species, and 5) RF− = not a rainforest species. We additionally acclaimed breed predominantly associated with sclerophyll backwoods or woodland, heathland or shrubland, bouldered breadth (including granite tors, cliffs, bedrock fissures, apparent bouldered peaks, outcrops, scree slopes) or abrupt gullies or gorges in asperous breadth (Supplementary Data 2). We additionally acclaimed a ambit of added abode types and on all-embracing abode description of anniversary breed (Supplementary Data 2). Abstracts were sourced primarily from the ALA, NSW Flora Online, VICFLORA and, for rainforest taxa, the Rainforest Plants of Australia Interactive Identification Key and Advice Arrangement (http://rainforestplantsofaustralia.com/), taxa listed in Department of the Arts, Sport and the Ambiance and Territories 199229 and able opinion. Descriptions provided on case annal were additionally acclimated to actuate primary habitat. Abstracts were bound for some breed and some taxa may action in habitats not acclaimed in these sources.
Finally, we acclimated the blaze acknowledgment allocation arrangement of Pausas et al.33 to actuate two key fire-related ancestry for 270 breed with PFM > 0.5: (1) resprouting ability, either resprouters (R ) or non-resprouters (R-), and (2) propagule persistence, either propagule persisters (P ) or non-persisters (P-). In this arrangement R species are able of resprouting from abundant structures such as rhizomes, epicormic buds or lignotubers afterward 100% awning scorch, while populations of P species abide via a assiduous berry bank, serotiny, or pyrogenic flowering. These two ancestry were again acclimated to allocate anniversary bulb breed into one of four blaze acknowledgment types: (1) R P = facultative breed that can survive blaze by either resprouting or recruiting from a assiduous seedbank, (2) R P− = obligate resprouters that depend on post-fire abundant regrowth and recruit abandoned afterwards assembly of new propagules in the inter-fire period, (3) R − P = obligate seeders, which are post-fire application specialists, and (4) R − P − = non-persisters, or breed that do not survive blaze and balance abandoned afterward breakdown of propagules from unburnt sites. For simplicity, R P , R P − and R − P species, and breadth abstracts were partial, R and P species, were collectively referred to as blaze persisters. Blaze acknowledgment abstracts were sourced primarily from the New South Wales Flora Blaze Acknowledgment Database (supplied by Blaze Ecology Unit, NSW Office of Ambiance and Heritage, Hurstville, NSW 1481) supplemented by added references and able assessment (Supplementary Data 3).
Statistical analyses were acclimated to investigate relationships amid ambit extent, activity form, abode blazon and blaze impacts beyond taxa. First, we quantified the skewness of the administration of best ambit admeasurement (RET) beyond taxa ancient to the abstraction breadth and activated aberration from course application the Shapiro-Wilk accomplishment W. We again compared RET beyond rainforest abode categories (RF , RF , RF and RF−) application simple one-way assay of about-face with abstracts adapted [y = log10(x 1)] above-mentioned to assay to accommodated archetypal assumptions of course and homoscedasticity; column hoc agency comparisons were fabricated application Tukey’s Honest Significant Aberration method. Added statistical information, including abutment provided by another statistical models is provided in the Supplementary Notes.
We quantified ambit admeasurement (RET) beyond altered activity anatomy categories and activated for accumulation differences application the nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis rank-sum analysis and post-hoc pairwise Wilcox rank-sum tests with Benjamini and Hochberg’s86 BH acclimation for assorted comparisons. We additionally aggregated ambit admeasurement abstracts into six broader activity anatomy groupings (low shrubs, average shrubs, alpine shrubs, trees, abiding forbs and other, including epiphytes and climbers) and four ambit classes (extremely and absolute ambit belted with ranges <25 km, ambit belted with ranges 25–100 km, moderately boundless with ranges 100–500 km, and absolute or acutely boundless with ranges >500 km). Row-column accident was activated application the accepted Pearson χ2 accomplishment (Supplementary Notes).
The accord amid RET and admeasurement burnt (PFM) beyond taxa was triangular and appropriately abandoned distributional assumptions of beeline corruption (Supplementary Notes). To quantify this accord we aboriginal activated for an all-embracing aberration in PFM beyond eight RET admeasurement classes (<10 km, 10 to <25 km, 25 to <100 km, 100 to <250 km, 250 to <500 km, 500 to <750 km, 750 to <1000 km and 1000 to 1500 km) application the Kruskal–Wallis rank-sum test. We again acclimated quantile corruption to characterise the accord amid RET and PFM at 0.10, 0.20….0.90 quantiles (τ) application beeline quantile corruption models with accessory aplomb intervals estimated application the Koenker rank method. Finally, we compared PFM beyond rainforest categories (RF , RF , RF and RF−) application the Kruskal–Wallis rank-sum analysis with post-hoc pairwise accumulation comparisons based on pairwise Wilcox rank-sum tests with the BH acclimation for assorted comparisons. Statistics were performed application the R stats abject amalgamation adaptation 4.0.1, moments amalgamation adaptation 0.14 and the quantreg amalgamation adaptation 5.75.
Further advice on analysis architecture is accessible in the Nature Analysis Reporting Arbitrary affiliated to this article.
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